test(folio): judge the conjunct on the landings a real run produces

three of the 18 frames the recorded ios run drove it down, each with the
second commit the bound is there to catch. neutering the comparison reddens
it: a second commit on 357900 went unjudged.

pkg/spec/test/folio-ledger-window.test.ts

@@ -145,6 +145,37 @@ test("one submit moving the balance by exactly the typed amount is the app worki
   }
 });
 
+// The frames this bound is actually driven down, replayed off the recorded iOS
+// run at runs/folio-ios/20260815-102711 (seed 7, 240 steps). It judged 18 of
+// them and fired on none: every one was a single Tap on TxnSubmit landing back
+// on the account's own ledger with the balance moved by exactly what was typed,
+// which is the app working. Three of those readings are below, with the same
+// frame as it looks when the one action commits twice.
+//
+// A double tap is nowhere in that list, and the run took three of them: all
+// three landed on Home, where this conjunct has no balance to read and
+// committedTransactionsExceedSubmits convicted instead. What reaches here is
+// the interleaving where the second commit's pop does not run.
+test("the ledger landings a real run produces are judged, and a doubled one fires", () => {
+  for (const [prev, typed] of [
+    [357900, 25100],
+    [455800, 7900],
+    [682500, 19300],
+  ]) {
+    const judge = (currAccountBalance: number) =>
+      committedAmountExceedsOneSubmit({
+        route: "ledger",
+        lastAction: submit,
+        submitsInWindow: 1,
+        typedAmount: typed!,
+        prevAccountBalance: prev!,
+        currAccountBalance,
+      });
+    assert.equal(judge(prev! + typed!), false, `the recorded ${prev} -> ${prev! + typed!} was convicted`);
+    assert.equal(judge(prev! + 2 * typed!), true, `a second commit on ${prev} went unjudged`);
+  }
+});
+
 // A balance that has not moved is a commit still in flight (createTransaction
 // runs in a coroutine), a submit the app rejected, or a tap that never landed.
 // None of those is evidence, and an equality would convict all three.