Commit Graph
5 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
pj 4bcd82a8a6 fix(analyze): write an undefined paired p-value as null, not as NaN
A paired contrast where censoring orders no pair has no p-value, and JSON has
no NaN, so --json failed with 'marshal summary: json: unsupported value: NaN'
and wrote no summary at all after printing a complete report. The two fields
join the medians and the rates already carried as pointers, undefined reading
as null in the summary and n/a in the report.

Reachable since a clean run started being censored where it stopped: an arm
the wall clock stops before its partner ever violates orders nothing.
2026-08-18 20:24:10 +05:30
pj dd625de068 docs(analyze): name the tests the tool actually runs
The --paired flag advertised the signed-rank, two comments and a test message
still said rank-sum, and nothing said what rankSum is doing in the tree now
that no campaign reaches it.
2026-08-18 20:17:39 +05:30
pj 1008402558 fix(analyze): score a seed pair by which run outlived the other
The paired path had the same defect as the unpaired one: it subtracted two
step counts and handed the differences to the signed-rank test, so a pair
holding a run the wall clock stopped at step 12 entered as a difference
neither run supports. Twenty seeds where the first arm was still clean at
step 12 and the second violated at step 5 in six of them read sign -1 and
p 0.0011, pointing at the arm that never violated.

A pair is now scored the way the unpaired comparison scores one and tested by
the exact sign test over the pairs whose order censoring determines, which is
what the log-rank stratified by seed reduces to here. The signed-rank goes
with the differences it needed: a magnitude-based paired test wants a
difference from every pair, and the arms censor on different clocks. The
median difference stays, over the pairs where both runs violated, and says so.
2026-08-18 20:16:40 +05:30
pj f0726a1e61 fix(analyze): compare arms on censored runs, not on flattened step counts
stepTimes threw the censoring flag away and handed the rank-sum a plain
number per run, so a run the wall clock stopped at step 12 was ranked as one
that violated at step 12. That was defensible while every clean run sat at
the budget, the largest value any run could take, and it stopped being
defensible when a clean run started being censored where it stopped.

Twenty runs clean at step 12 against twenty violations at step 100 read a12
0.000 and p 4.683e-10 from the rank-sum, in the same report as a log-rank
reading p 1.0000. The pairwise comparison is now the Gehan test over the
observations themselves, and the report says how many run pairs censoring
left with no order between them, which is how much of the effect size is the
null value rather than an observation.
2026-08-18 20:13:12 +05:30
pj b47509a8e8 test(analyze): recover planted effects through the tool's own entry point
a pipeline exercised only on data whose answer nobody knows reports that it runs, not that it is right. these plant effects whose value follows from the generating model and require the tool to recover them from campaign directories it reads off disk.
2026-08-16 17:45:26 +05:30