Commit Graph
4 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
pj ca6a05ca5e fix(analyze): mark an action count of unknown provenance in the report 2026-08-18 19:45:58 +05:30
pj 1da0c3e118 fix(analyze): censor a clean run at the steps it ran, and refuse mismatched budgets
A run stops at whichever comes first, the step budget or --duration, so
a clean run that reached the wall clock exited with fewer steps than the
budget and was still credited with the whole of it. The model arm pays a
network call and a screenshot per step, so it reaches the wall sooner and
was handed exposure it never had.

Nothing checked that two arms shared a budget either. Thirty identical
clean runs under budgets of 400 and 100 read a12 0.000 and p 1.685e-14
from the rank-sum while the log-rank in the same report read p 1.0000.
groupArms already refused this within one arm.

The claims the old convention left in comments and report lines are
corrected rather than left standing beside the new behaviour.
2026-08-18 14:11:28 +05:30
pj 2cbe03c3fb fix(analyze): divide by actions that ran
Defects per thousand actions counted every step, including steps that chose
nothing and steps whose action was never dispatched. The inflation is
policy-dependent, so it does not cancel between arms: on the fixture campaign
the model arm's yield was reported at 60.3 per thousand against a true 120.7,
because half its steps did nothing.

A runs.jsonl without the count is refused by name and line rather than read as
zero actions, which would report every per-action rate wrongly. The report also
carries steps beside actions now, so the gap is visible rather than folded into
a denominator.

Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01A5KmftdEJ49A9z5mF5ESrX
2026-08-12 23:43:19 +05:30
pj 019d608f65 feat(analyze): survival analysis over campaign directories
Steps to first violation with clean runs right-censored at the budget, since
per-run yield is a binary at 11 to 45 percent and separating two arms on it
would need roughly 80 runs per arm. Kaplan-Meier, log-rank, Wilcoxon rank-sum
with Vargha-Delaney A12, Holm within each family.

A hand-rolled log-rank that is subtly wrong is a silent-wrong-number generator
and would be believed, so every statistic is validated against a published
worked example with the source named in the test: R survdiff on aml, Freireich
6-MP, Hollander and Wolfe 1973 for the rank sum, printed p.adjust output for
Holm. Two could not be: the k>2 log-rank, guarded by calibration instead, and
the tie-corrected variance, checked against an exact permutation variance.

Failed and timed-out runs are excluded as missing data and counted by reason,
never treated as censored observations, which would bias the result.

Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01A5KmftdEJ49A9z5mF5ESrX
2026-08-12 23:03:03 +05:30