diff --git a/examples/folio/sanderling/predicates.ts b/examples/folio/sanderling/predicates.ts
index e7ea34b..ab93c60 100644
--- a/examples/folio/sanderling/predicates.ts
+++ b/examples/folio/sanderling/predicates.ts
@@ -123,10 +123,22 @@ export function readHomeCards<T>(args: {
   return { value: reading, carrier: reading, fresh: true };
 }
 
-function isTapOn(
-  lastAction: { kind?: string; on?: string | object } | null,
-  target: string,
-): boolean {
+// state.lastAction as the two hosts build it (internal/verifier/marshal.go
+// lastActionFields), read defensively: every field is what a Go struct decided
+// to emit, not something this file can trust a compile-time shape for.
+//
+// `applied` is true when the runner saw the action's dispatch succeed and null
+// when the apply call failed with the gesture possibly already delivered: an
+// RPC deadline can fire after the tap landed, and nothing can find out
+// afterwards. That is unknown, not "it did not happen", which is what
+// `lastAction === null` says.
+export interface ObservedAction {
+  kind?: string;
+  on?: string | object;
+  applied?: true | null;
+}
+
+function isTapOn(lastAction: ObservedAction | null, target: string): boolean {
   if (lastAction == null) return false;
   if (lastAction.kind !== "Tap" && lastAction.kind !== "DoubleTap") return false;
   const on = lastAction.on;
@@ -138,19 +150,27 @@ function isTapOn(
 // Repository.createTransaction: AddTransactionViewModel.submit() is the only
 // caller, AddTransactionEvent.Submit is the only thing that runs it, and the
 // TxnSubmit button's onClick is the only thing that sends that event.
-export function isTxnSubmitTap(
-  lastAction: { kind?: string; on?: string | object } | null,
-): boolean {
+export function isTxnSubmitTap(lastAction: ObservedAction | null): boolean {
   return isTapOn(lastAction, "TxnSubmit");
 }
 
 // Likewise the only action that creates an account.
-export function isAddAccountSubmitTap(
-  lastAction: { kind?: string; on?: string | object } | null,
-): boolean {
+export function isAddAccountSubmitTap(lastAction: ObservedAction | null): boolean {
   return isTapOn(lastAction, "AddAccountSubmit");
 }
 
+// Did the runner see this action's dispatch succeed? `applied` is null when the
+// apply call failed with the gesture possibly already delivered (an RPC
+// deadline can fire after the tap landed), and the runner has no way to find
+// out afterwards. Such an action may have caused anything the next reading
+// shows, so it counts toward how many submits a window COULD hold, but it never
+// licenses attributing an effect to it: a property that demands the effect of
+// an action that may never have run convicts the app of the runner's own
+// uncertainty.
+export function confirmedApplied(lastAction: ObservedAction | null): boolean {
+  return lastAction != null && lastAction.applied === true;
+}
+
 // Counts the submit actions inside the window the balance property compares
 // over: from the last Home total we read to this step, inclusive of this step's
 // action.
@@ -164,9 +184,15 @@ export function isAddAccountSubmitTap(
 //
 // The reset lands on `fresh`, the same event that advances the carrier, so the
 // count always describes exactly the interval the two compared totals span.
+//
+// A submit whose dispatch the runner could not confirm counts here, because
+// this number is an upper bound on the submits the window holds and the tap may
+// well have landed. Leaving it out is what convicted a healthy app:
+// committedTransactionsExceedSubmits saw a transaction rise of one against a
+// window of zero and called it a double submit.
 export function countSubmitsInWindow(args: {
   previousCount: number;
-  lastAction: { kind?: string; on?: string | object } | null;
+  lastAction: ObservedAction | null;
   fresh: boolean;
 }): { reported: number; next: number } {
   const { previousCount, lastAction, fresh } = args;
@@ -343,7 +369,7 @@ export function homeTxnCountsOf(cards: readonly CardReading[]): Record<string, T
 // same as fine, and both come back false here.
 export function createdAccountHasNonZeroBalance(args: {
   route: string | null;
-  lastAction: { kind?: string; on?: string | object } | null;
+  lastAction: ObservedAction | null;
   typedName: string | undefined;
   before: Account[] | null;
   after: Account[] | null;
@@ -351,6 +377,10 @@ export function createdAccountHasNonZeroBalance(args: {
   const { route, lastAction, before, after } = args;
   if (route !== "home") return false;
   if (!isAddAccountSubmitTap(lastAction)) return false;
+  // A creation nobody can confirm happened is not a creation to attribute a
+  // card to: the card that turned up may be an older account of the same name
+  // scrolling into view.
+  if (!confirmedApplied(lastAction)) return false;
   if (before === null || after === null) return false;
   const typed = (args.typedName ?? "").trim();
   if (typed === "") return false;
@@ -465,7 +495,7 @@ export function parseTypedAmount(text: string | undefined | null): number {
 // the bug: the double-tap is a single action.
 export function submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount(args: {
   route: string | null;
-  lastAction: { kind?: string; on?: string | object } | null;
+  lastAction: ObservedAction | null;
   submitsInWindow: number;
   typedAmount: number;
   prevTotalBalance: number | null;
@@ -476,6 +506,10 @@ export function submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount(args: {
 
   if (route !== "home") return true;
   if (!isTxnSubmitTap(lastAction)) return true;
+  // The whole rule is that the delta belongs to THIS submit. A submit the
+  // runner could not confirm may have committed nothing, and a balance that
+  // did not move is then exactly what a healthy app looks like.
+  if (!confirmedApplied(lastAction)) return true;
   if (submitsInWindow !== 1) return true;
   if (typedAmount === 0) return true;
   // An unknown total on either side is not evidence of anything. Comparing one
diff --git a/pkg/spec/test/folio-new-account.test.ts b/pkg/spec/test/folio-new-account.test.ts
index def23bb..d5ee3ab 100644
--- a/pkg/spec/test/folio-new-account.test.ts
+++ b/pkg/spec/test/folio-new-account.test.ts
@@ -3,8 +3,12 @@ import { test } from "node:test";
 
 import { createdAccountHasNonZeroBalance } from "../../../examples/folio/sanderling/predicates.ts";
 
-const created = { kind: "Tap", on: "testTag:AddAccountScreen > testTag:AddAccountSubmit" };
-const idle = { kind: "Tap", on: "testTag:HomeScreen > testTag:AccountCard" };
+const created = {
+  kind: "Tap",
+  on: "testTag:AddAccountScreen > testTag:AddAccountSubmit",
+  applied: true as const,
+};
+const idle = { kind: "Tap", on: "testTag:HomeScreen > testTag:AccountCard", applied: true as const };
 
 const account = (name: string, balance: number | null) => ({ name, balance });
 
@@ -27,7 +31,7 @@ test("a double-tapped create is judged the same way", () => {
   assert.equal(
     createdAccountHasNonZeroBalance({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: "id:AddAccountSubmit" },
+      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: "id:AddAccountSubmit", applied: true },
       typedName: "Travel",
       before: [account("Checking", 0)],
       after: [account("Checking", 0), account("Travel", 5000)],
@@ -233,3 +237,20 @@ test("a card that was already there is not a card that was just created", () =>
     false,
   );
 });
+
+// The apply call failed with the gesture possibly already delivered, so nobody
+// knows whether that account was created. The card carrying the typed name may
+// be an older one that scrolled into view, and attributing it to a creation
+// that may never have happened is a conviction built on a guess.
+test("a create the runner could not confirm attributes nothing", () => {
+  assert.equal(
+    createdAccountHasNonZeroBalance({
+      route: "home",
+      lastAction: { ...created, applied: null },
+      typedName: "Travel",
+      before: [account("Checking", 0)],
+      after: [account("Checking", 0), account("Travel", 5000)],
+    }),
+    false,
+  );
+});
diff --git a/pkg/spec/test/folio-submit-balance-predicate.test.ts b/pkg/spec/test/folio-submit-balance-predicate.test.ts
index 57a94ce..672fb5b 100644
--- a/pkg/spec/test/folio-submit-balance-predicate.test.ts
+++ b/pkg/spec/test/folio-submit-balance-predicate.test.ts
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ test("single submit: delta matches typed amount", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 1000,
@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ test("double submit: delta is twice the typed amount, fires", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 1000,
@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ test("DoubleTap kind also caught when delta exceeds typed amount", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ test("wrong action kind: vacuous true even with mismatch", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "InputText", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "InputText", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 1000,
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ test("wrong target: vacuous true even with mismatch", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: "testTag:LoginScreen > testTag:LoginSubmit" },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: "testTag:LoginScreen > testTag:LoginSubmit", applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 1000,
@@ -96,7 +96,7 @@ test("zero typedAmount: vacuous true", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 0,
       prevTotalBalance: 1000,
@@ -110,7 +110,7 @@ test("selector as object: coerced safely and TxnSubmit detected", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: { testTag: "TxnSubmit" } },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: { testTag: "TxnSubmit" }, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -124,7 +124,7 @@ test("selector as object without TxnSubmit: vacuous true", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: { testTag: "LoginSubmit" } },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: { testTag: "LoginSubmit" }, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -138,7 +138,7 @@ test("raw whole-dollar input: single submit clears", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: parseTypedAmount("50"),
       prevTotalBalance: 5000,
@@ -152,7 +152,7 @@ test("raw whole-dollar input: double submit fires", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: parseTypedAmount("50"),
       prevTotalBalance: 5000,
@@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ test("decimal input from empty prior balance clears", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: parseTypedAmount("5.50"),
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -180,7 +180,7 @@ test("DoubleTap kind with raw whole-dollar input fires", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: parseTypedAmount("100"),
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -194,7 +194,7 @@ test("route gate: ledger landing with stale carrier is skipped", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "ledger",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 5000,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -208,7 +208,7 @@ test("route gate: add-transaction landing with double-submit delta is skipped",
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "add-transaction",
-      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 5000,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ test("route gate: null route is skipped", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: null,
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 5000,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -236,7 +236,7 @@ test("route gate: home landing with matching delta passes", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 5000,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -250,7 +250,7 @@ test("route gate: home landing with double-insert delta fires", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 5000,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -275,7 +275,7 @@ test("above 2^53 a healthy single submit is not reported", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 1600,
       prevTotalBalance: HUGE_BALANCE,
@@ -289,7 +289,7 @@ test("above 2^53 a double-submit delta is not reported either", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 1600,
       prevTotalBalance: HUGE_BALANCE,
@@ -303,7 +303,7 @@ test("an unreadable previous balance above 2^53 is not evidence", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 1600,
       prevTotalBalance: HUGE_BALANCE,
@@ -320,7 +320,7 @@ test("typed amount above 2^53 is not evidence", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 1e23,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -336,7 +336,7 @@ test("boundary: a double submit landing exactly on MAX_SAFE_INTEGER still fires"
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 4503599627370495,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -350,7 +350,7 @@ test("boundary: a single submit landing exactly on MAX_SAFE_INTEGER passes", ()
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 9007199254740991,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -364,7 +364,7 @@ test("boundary: one cent past MAX_SAFE_INTEGER stops being evidence", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 4503599627370496,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -381,7 +381,7 @@ test("a large but exact difference between safe balances still fires", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: -9007199254740991,
@@ -397,7 +397,7 @@ test("21-digit typed amount with an unmoved balance is not a violation", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: parseTypedAmount("999999999999999999999"),
       prevTotalBalance: 220900,
@@ -417,7 +417,7 @@ test("freshness: two submits in the window is vacuous, not a conviction", () =>
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 2,
       typedAmount: 19600,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -431,7 +431,7 @@ test("freshness: two submits cannot convict even on a clean 2x delta", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 2,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 1000,
@@ -448,7 +448,7 @@ test("freshness boundary: exactly one submit is the window that convicts", () =>
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 19600,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -462,7 +462,7 @@ test("freshness boundary: one submit with a healthy 1x delta still passes", () =
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 1,
       typedAmount: 19600,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -476,7 +476,7 @@ test("freshness boundary: three submits is vacuous", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 3,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 0,
@@ -493,7 +493,7 @@ test("freshness boundary: a window with no submit in it is vacuous", () => {
   assert.equal(
     submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
       route: "home",
-      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true },
       submitsInWindow: 0,
       typedAmount: 500,
       prevTotalBalance: 1000,
@@ -502,3 +502,21 @@ test("freshness boundary: a window with no submit in it is vacuous", () => {
     true,
   );
 });
+
+// applied: null is the runner saying it dispatched the tap and never learned
+// whether it landed. A submit that committed nothing leaves the balance where
+// it was, so demanding the typed amount of movement for it convicts an app that
+// did exactly what it should have.
+test("a submit the runner could not confirm demands no balance move", () => {
+  assert.equal(
+    submitChangesBalanceByTypedAmount({
+      route: "home",
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: null },
+      submitsInWindow: 1,
+      typedAmount: 500,
+      prevTotalBalance: 1000,
+      currTotalBalance: 1000,
+    }),
+    true,
+  );
+});
diff --git a/pkg/spec/test/folio-transition-frame.test.ts b/pkg/spec/test/folio-transition-frame.test.ts
index f785642..64bcbf3 100644
--- a/pkg/spec/test/folio-transition-frame.test.ts
+++ b/pkg/spec/test/folio-transition-frame.test.ts
@@ -94,7 +94,7 @@ test("the measured android transition chain no longer convicts at delta 0", () =
   const step = (
     tags: string[],
     totalText: string | undefined,
-    lastAction: { kind: string; on: string } | null,
+    lastAction: { kind: string; on: string; applied: true } | null,
   ) => {
     const route = routeOfFrame(SCREENS, frame(...tags));
     const reading = readHomeTotalBalance({ route, totalText, previousCarrier: carrier });
@@ -104,8 +104,12 @@ test("the measured android transition chain no longer convicts at delta 0", () =
     return { route, total: reading.value, submits: window.reported };
   };
 
-  const back = { kind: "DoubleTap", on: "id:BackButton" };
-  const phantomSubmit = { kind: "Tap", on: "testTag:AddTransactionScreen > testTag:TxnSubmit" };
+  const back = { kind: "DoubleTap", on: "id:BackButton", applied: true as const };
+  const phantomSubmit = {
+    kind: "Tap",
+    on: "testTag:AddTransactionScreen > testTag:TxnSubmit",
+    applied: true as const,
+  };
 
   const transition = step(["AddTransactionScreen", "HomeScreen"], "$86,911.00", back);
   assert.equal(transition.route, null);