diff --git a/examples/folio/sanderling/predicates.ts b/examples/folio/sanderling/predicates.ts
index db36849..27bee6d 100644
--- a/examples/folio/sanderling/predicates.ts
+++ b/examples/folio/sanderling/predicates.ts
@@ -249,16 +249,54 @@ export function acrossRelaunch(lastAction: ObservedAction | null): boolean {
 // well have landed. Leaving it out is what convicted a healthy app:
 // committedTransactionsExceedSubmits saw a transaction rise of one against a
 // window of zero and called it a double submit.
+//
+// A submit the app must have refused does not count, for the mirror reason: it
+// cannot have committed anything, so the bound it would raise is slack the app
+// can hide a real double submit behind. See submitCouldCommit for what "must
+// have refused" is allowed to mean.
 export function countSubmitsInWindow(args: {
   previousCount: number;
   lastAction: ObservedAction | null;
+  amountText?: string;
   fresh: boolean;
 }): { reported: number; next: number } {
   const { previousCount, lastAction, fresh } = args;
-  const reported = previousCount + (isTxnSubmitTap(lastAction) ? 1 : 0);
+  // A relaunch is the one thing that can put a form state on screen other than
+  // the one the tap read, so the field it draws proves nothing about it.
+  const refused = !acrossRelaunch(lastAction) && !submitCouldCommit(args.amountText);
+  const reported = previousCount + (isTxnSubmitTap(lastAction) && !refused ? 1 : 0);
   return { reported, next: fresh ? 0 : reported };
 }
 
+// Could the app have committed anything for that submit? The amount field as
+// the LANDING frame shows it is the form state the tap read: the tap changes
+// nothing about it, and one action runs per step, so nothing else could have.
+// Off the transaction screen there is no field to read, and undefined is
+// unknown, which counts.
+//
+// False only where Folio's own code must have refused. parseCents takes
+// `^\d+(\.\d{1,2})?$` with commas stripped and refuses everything else, and
+// AddTransactionViewModel refuses a parsed zero on top of that. An empty field
+// never even reaches the parser: TxnSubmit is
+// clickable(enabled = amount.isNotBlank()), so the click does not fire.
+//
+// This is the difference between a bound and a useless one. The window is an
+// upper bound on the transactions the interval could hold, and a bound inflated
+// by taps that commit nothing is a bound the app can never exceed: the iOS run
+// in #78 read a rise of 15 transactions against a window of 37 submits and had
+// nothing to say. Measured over four recorded android runs, 19, 11, 25 and 25
+// of 35, 26, 42 and 42 submit taps landed with the amount field empty.
+//
+// An amount too large for a Kotlin Long is refused by the app too, and still
+// counts here: over-counting can only cost a detection, and the reading that
+// would have to prove the overflow is a float that cannot hold the number.
+export function submitCouldCommit(amountText: string | undefined): boolean {
+  if (amountText === undefined) return true;
+  const trimmed = amountText.trim().replace(/,/g, "");
+  if (!/^\d+(\.\d{1,2})?$/.test(trimmed)) return false;
+  return /[1-9]/.test(trimmed);
+}
+
 // Parses formatCents output like "$5.00", "-$1,234.56", "+$0.50" back to
 // integer cents. Anything that is not a complete amount is null, not 0: a
 // balance we could not read is unknown, and reading it as zero silently moves
diff --git a/pkg/spec/test/folio-submit-window.test.ts b/pkg/spec/test/folio-submit-window.test.ts
index 6e19281..4774165 100644
--- a/pkg/spec/test/folio-submit-window.test.ts
+++ b/pkg/spec/test/folio-submit-window.test.ts
@@ -67,6 +67,96 @@ test("a second submit with no Home reading between them counts two", () => {
   );
 });
 
+// The window is a budget: an upper bound on the transactions the interval could
+// hold. A tap the app's own parser must have refused spends none of it, and on
+// android it does not even reach the parser, because TxnSubmit is
+// clickable(enabled = amount.isNotBlank()). Measured over four recorded android
+// runs, 19, 11, 25 and 25 of 35, 26, 42 and 42 submit taps landed on the
+// transaction screen with the amount field empty, so more than half the budget
+// was being spent on taps that cannot commit anything.
+test("a submit the app must have refused does not spend the window's budget", () => {
+  for (const amountText of ["", "   ", "0", "0.00", "00", "5.", "abc"]) {
+    assert.deepEqual(
+      countSubmitsInWindow({
+        previousCount: 0,
+        lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+        amountText,
+        fresh: false,
+      }),
+      { reported: 0, next: 0 },
+      `amount ${JSON.stringify(amountText)} was counted as a possible commit`,
+    );
+  }
+});
+
+// The field as the landing frame shows it, which is the form state the tap read:
+// nothing between the two changes it. Anywhere but the transaction screen there
+// is no field to read, and unknown has to count.
+test("an amount that could commit, or that nobody could read, spends the budget", () => {
+  for (const amountText of ["5", "0.01", "1,000", "999999999999999999999", undefined]) {
+    assert.deepEqual(
+      countSubmitsInWindow({
+        previousCount: 0,
+        lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn },
+        amountText,
+        fresh: false,
+      }),
+      { reported: 1, next: 1 },
+      `amount ${JSON.stringify(amountText)} was dropped from the budget`,
+    );
+  }
+});
+
+// The one thing that can put a different form state on screen than the one the
+// tap read: the runner restarting the app, which the tap survives and the typed
+// amount does not. The field a fresh process draws is empty whatever was
+// submitted, so it proves nothing and the submit keeps its place in the budget.
+test("a submit across a relaunch spends the budget whatever the field shows", () => {
+  assert.deepEqual(
+    countSubmitsInWindow({
+      previousCount: 0,
+      lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn, applied: true, relaunched: true },
+      amountText: "",
+      fresh: false,
+    }),
+    { reported: 1, next: 1 },
+  );
+});
+
+// What the budget costs the counting invariant, in the shape of the iOS run in
+// #78: a stretch of the walk that never went Home, most of it taps on a submit
+// button with nothing typed into the form, and one double tap that committed
+// twice. Counting the refused taps hands the app five transactions of slack it
+// never used, and two rows against six actions is no violation.
+test("refused submits used to hide a double submit behind their own budget", () => {
+  const frames = [
+    { amountText: "", lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn } },
+    { amountText: "", lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn } },
+    { amountText: "", lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn } },
+    { amountText: "", lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn } },
+    { amountText: "", lastAction: { kind: "Tap", on: submitOn } },
+    { amountText: undefined, lastAction: { kind: "DoubleTap", on: submitOn } },
+  ];
+  let budget = 0;
+  for (const frame of frames) {
+    budget = countSubmitsInWindow({
+      previousCount: budget,
+      lastAction: frame.lastAction,
+      amountText: frame.amountText,
+      fresh: false,
+    }).next;
+  }
+  assert.equal(budget, 1);
+  assert.equal(
+    committedTransactionsExceedSubmits({
+      countsBefore: { Checking: 3 },
+      countsAfter: { Checking: 5 },
+      submitsInWindow: budget,
+    }),
+    true,
+  );
+});
+
 // The two traces the freshness rule exists to tell apart, driven step by step
 // through the same pair of carriers the spec holds.
 function run(steps: { route: string | null; totalText?: string; lastAction: unknown }[]) {