fix swe pilot v3 offline verification

tests/test_swe_population_report.py

@@ -1,4 +1,9 @@
-from scripts.swe_population_report import binary_score, paired_analysis
+from messageboardbench.swe_reporting import (
+    binary_score,
+    paired_analysis,
+    strict_analysis_rows,
+    summarize,
+)
 
 
 def test_paired_analysis_uses_each_arm_not_late_bound_generator_variable():
@@ -16,3 +21,37 @@ def test_paired_analysis_uses_each_arm_not_late_bound_generator_variable():
 
 def test_binary_score_tolerates_partial_generic_episode_rows():
     assert binary_score({}) is None
+
+
+def test_missing_strict_targets_are_excluded_from_primary_and_paired_analysis():
+    rows = [
+        {"episode_id": "control-a", "team": 1, "task_id": "a", "condition": "control", "score": 1.0},
+        {"episode_id": "board-a", "team": 1, "task_id": "a", "condition": "board", "score": 0.0},
+        {"episode_id": "control-b", "team": 1, "task_id": "b", "condition": "control", "score": 0.0},
+        {"episode_id": "board-b", "team": 1, "task_id": "b", "condition": "board", "score": 0.0},
+    ]
+    artifacts = {
+        "control-a": {"strict_target_statuses": {"test": "PASSED"}},
+        "board-a": {"strict_target_statuses": {"test": "FAILED"}},
+        "control-b": {"strict_target_statuses": {"test": "MISSING"}},
+        "board-b": {"strict_target_statuses": {"test": "ERROR"}},
+    }
+    analysis_rows = strict_analysis_rows(rows, artifacts)
+
+    assert analysis_rows[2]["score"] is None
+    assert analysis_rows[2]["outcome_exclusion"] == "strict_targets_missing_or_error"
+    assert analysis_rows[3]["score"] is None
+    assert summarize(analysis_rows, 4) == {
+        "planned": 4,
+        "terminal_rows": 4,
+        "observed": 2,
+        "missing": 2,
+        "successful": 1,
+        "observed_rate": 0.5,
+        "missing_as_failure_rate": 0.25,
+        "missing_as_success_rate": 0.75,
+    }
+    paired = paired_analysis(analysis_rows)
+    assert paired["team_effects"] == [
+        {"team": 1, "complete_pairs": 1, "board_minus_control": -1.0}
+    ]